Improving Cape Canaveral's Next-Day Thunderstorm Forecasting Using a MESO-ETA Model-Based Index

by John C. Crane

Reliable thunderstorm forecasts are essential to safety and resource protection at Cape Canaveral. Current methods of forecasting day-2 thunderstorms provide little improvement over forecasting by persistence alone and are therefore in need of replacement. This thesis focuses on using the mesoscale eta model to develop an index for improved forecasting of day-2 thunderstorms. Surface observations from the shuttle landing facility and the coincident output of the mesoscale eta forecast model were collected for the period of 1 May to 14 Sep 1998. Variables extracted from the eta forecast model output, as well as derived variables that incorporate the eta output variables, were divided into three data sets. A univariate logistic regression with the occurrence of a thunderstorm in the surface observation (the "truth") as the dependent variable, and the output/derived values from the eta model as the independent variable, discarded all but 94 of over 250 predictors that were considered important to thunderstorm work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.